In the part 1 of the bye-week round-up, I had a look at players on the Commanders’ offensive roster who figured to be part of the rebuild to championship contention, and those that the team might move on from in the offseason. The second part concludes with a look at defense and special teams.contract v
Commanders’ players were rated against other players at their positions around the league, with just one or two key stats shown in the summary tables. I also took into account players’ age and contract status to sort them into the following categories, reflecting how they might fit into the overall scheme of Adam Peters’ roster makeover:
Building Blocks – young players showing promise to be key pieces of the rise to championship contention and beyond
Key Pieces – stars of today who will help get the team to its first championship run, but might not be part of the long term plan
Bridge Players – players who are good enough to keep for one or two more seasons, until Peters can find younger, better replacements. This year’s bridge players might be next year’s replacement level.
Replacement Level – a broad category including any player who is occupying a roster space that should be filled by a better, younger, or cheaper player. This can include sub-par starters, solid players nearing the end of their productive careers, and even very good players who aren’t producing enough to justify their massive contracts. The team might decide to bring back a Replacement Level player for another year, if no better option is available. The point is, they are going year to year, and competing with the rest of the market at their positions.
Fans might take exception to seeing some of their favorite players falling into this category, but I am trying to get into the mindset of a GM building for long-term success, rather than a fan or old football coach looking to reward their guys for all their hard work. It is a stark perspective.
Promising Depth – young players with upside.
Too Early to Tell – first and second year players who haven’t got enough playing time to evaluate
Tables show age next season. 2024 Games Started (GS) and snap counts are shown in the table, with annotations when players missed significant time on IR. Player ranks according to key productivity stats for their positions are shown in the table. Where a player did not meet the playing time requirement for ranking, their equivalent position rank is shown in parentheses. The tables show the year a player hits free agency, with annotations to indicate a fifth-year option (+) or void years in their contract(v).Dorance Armstrong Jr. – Bridge Player: Dorance had quietly become a solid edge rusher playing behind established starters in Dallas. In his first staring opportunity this year, he has continued to play at a solid, if unspectacular level, recording 3 sacks, 3 TFL and 1 forced fumble through 12 games. While he hasn’t got the QB much, he has generated the 24th highest pressure rate among 66 “starting” DEs (min 398 defensive snaps). He has also generated 12 run stops, and ranks 19th in run stop rate among the top 64 DEs (min 145 run defense snaps). He is good enough to hold the fort for another season or two until the Commanders can replace him with an impact edge rusher.
Dante Fowler Jr – Bridge Player: Fowler has already achieved his second-highest season sack total with 4 games to go, and is 4 sacks ahead of Montez Sweat and 5 ahead of Chase Young. He has been disruptive in the backfield, ranking 10th in pressure rate among edge rushers (min 400 def snaps), and recording 8.5 sacks, 11 TFL (9th in NFL), 1 FF, as well as a pick-6. He is more pass rush specialist than all around DE, but holds his own in run defense, ranking 26th in run stop rate among 69 edge defenders (min 140 run def snaps). I could be convinced to go Key Piece, but at 31 YO it would be risky to sign him to a long-term extension. Hopefully he won’t be too expensive to get back for a few more years. The Commanders need a succession plan to replace Fowler’s productivity on defense.
Clelin Ferrell – Replacement Level: Ferrell was brought in on a 1-year, $3.5m contract, and has done nothing to justify an extension. On the season he has 20 combined tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 TFL. His pressure rate on pass rushes is at the level of low-end starters. The Commanders have a pressing need to generate more pressure from the passer’s left side, where Ferrell mainly lines up.
Javontae Jean-Baptiste – Promising Depth: Jean-Baptiste has played in 8 games, and is one of only 4 rookie edge defenders drafted after the 4th round to record a sack. That puts him well ahead of the curve for a 7th round draft pick. If he becomes a solid rotational player, he will have exceeded expectations of his draft status.
End of Roster: Jalyn Holmes has made 2 TFL. Efe Obada has been a non-factor this season. Andre Jones has been elevated from the practice squad for 2 games, but barely got playing time. It is hard to know what the Commanders have in Viliami
Fehoko.
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